Modelo de distribuição geográfica e status de conservação de espécies de Manihot Mill. (Euphorbiaceae) ocorrentes na Chapada Diamantina, Bahia, Brasil

Abstract

The Manihot genus is among the most representative of the Euphorbiaceae. The Chapada Diamantina is the northern part of the Espinhaço, in the State of Bahia, including 38 municipalities and extending for 330 km in North-South direction. At least 20 species of Manihot are cited as threatened. This study aimed to evaluate the distribution and conservation status of the species Manihot occurring in the Chapada Diamantina, Bahia, Brazil. This work recorded 11 species distributed in the different vegetation types in the region, seven endemic species Chapada Diamantina. A survey data using search programs has been done in order to generate a table of data occurring species. These data were placed on a grid of the Neotropics. To do climate models were used five climate models plus Ph model of FAO and five climatic variables. The ecological niche models were obtained using statistical methods, including methods of presence only which are integrated into the computing platform BIOENSEMBLES. For the conservation status was used GEOCAT program available on the site www.kew.org.com.Com these data were generated maps with current distribution and then maps with forecasts for the year 2080. Of the 11 species of Manihot present in Chapada Diamantina only seven had occurrence records that allow their analysis according to the modeling methods used. Among the worked species was observed the predominance of all in the Northeast, mainly for the Caatinga. Manihot caerulescens and M. tripartita have a wide distribution, arriving in the Midwest, North and Southeast of Brazil. Based on current data was made a prediction of the potential occurrence of seven species analyzed for the year 2080. For conservation analysis we note that all persons are considered "endangered" as its distribution. From these results it is clear that the distribution of these species will be affected by the expected overview of climate change.